In June, SEDR resident economist Mark Vitner wrote this in one of his weekly reports: “S&P 500 net profit margins are at a record 13.4 percent. Credit card delinquency rates just hit 13.1 percent, the highest since 2011. The two figures nearly match, and they describe two different economies. One side compounds profits and capital spending; the other is running out of room on its credit cards.”
Then again, while the national economy and the South’s economy are all over the board, it seems fitting that the first half project report of large economic development projects announced from January 1, 2026, to June 30, 2026, is about as wacky as it gets, too. But, wacky good! At least in Texas.
I mean, can you believe that the first half of this year saw one of the best first halves — if not the best — in project history in the region in 34 years? And that’s after the worst first half in SB&D 100 history in 2025?
I even counted the deals three times for the first two quarters and actually made a revision up from 378 projects to 394 deals announced in the region the first two quarters of this year. In comparison, 1997 saw 361 projects announced in the first half and 2015 saw 355.
So, these 394 deals, again, represent one of the best two quarters ever. The best-ever years were 2014 to 2017, with 730 deals announced in 2015 meeting or exceeding our thresholds of 200 jobs and/or $30 million in investment.
The 394 projects announced in the first half of this year have a chance to beat the all-time record of 730, which could make 2026 the only year breaking the 700 mark in 34 years. There were 695 announced the next best year — 2016.
In fact, from 2014 to 2017, the average SB&D 100 for those four years was 693.5 big buffaloes. Only a four-year stretch from 1995 to 1998 can be compared, as those years averaged 583.5 announcements annually.
With 394 deals announced in the first half of this year, we are currently in some rare air. To make that even clearer, again, the first half of 2025 was the worst in 34 years of counting this stuff. There were only 119 deals announced in the first two quarters of 2025. So, in one year, we have seen an addition of 275 big job- and investment-generating projects in the first half of 2026.
Last year ended with a respectable, but uninspiring, 494 deal total of “big buffalo,” which means there was a large run the second half of 2025 from the 119 in the first two quarters of 2025. That run has extended through the first two quarters of 2026. So, for three quarters now, the deals have been flying in the American South.
Yet, the figures are somewhat skewed
This fact should certainly be noted and not overlooked. Just about every state in the South is up slightly — a few significantly — in average deals announced in Q1 and Q2. That is compared to historical data going back 34 years. And way up compared to last year.
Texas, on the other hand, is tearing it up and on a deal roll that I have never seen in four decades (except in 1997).
So, I just finished the state-by-state totals. Of the 396 projects announced in the first half of 2026 in the South, 146 were announced in Texas. The second-best state capturing big deals in Q1 and Q2 is North Carolina with 30.
That means in the first half of this year, the other 12 Southern states and D.C. captured 248 big projects. That is an average of about 21 projects per state meeting or exceeding our thresholds of 200 jobs and/or $30 million in investment. And Texas had 146? Really?
It is not the first time Texas has run away with big deals announced in the South. The aforementioned late 1990s saw a similar run by the Lone Star State. In 1997, Texas’ total beat all states combined. Looks like that is probably not going to happen this year, but we still have two quarters to go.
This economy may be terrible right now for two classes, but it is about to improve if data has a say. And it always does. At least in one state: Texas. But all Southern states are seeing projects.
Texas stands tall
What is happening in Texas is mind-boggling. Austin and DFW rule the world in economic development like no two metros I have seen in my 44 years in journalism. We might as well give them the 2026 “State of the Year” award halfway through the race.
Elon Musk is a deal-making machine. A.I. has taken over this economy. It’s a damn revolution in evolution!
And it is not just Tesla and SpaceX. Or Blue Origin. It is chips, as in Samsung and NVIDIA in Texas. A.I. and chip suppliers are everywhere, but mostly in Texas. Other industries standing out include metals, electronics, pharmaceuticals, rare earth minerals, shipbuilding, biotech and, of course, aerospace, which has had banner years for the last two years.
The two largest job-generating industries over the last 34 years; how are they doing? Well, they are making a comeback, too — 2025 was a total bust for automotive and financial services, but they have perked up. They are not yet to average deal levels over four decades, but it is nice to see automotive making a decent run so far this year. And, I always worry when financials are slow to hire.
It’s also a run of huge headquarter projects in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston, as well as Charlotte and Northern Virginia so far this year. Nashville is down and so is Atlanta. Yet, for the most part, mega-markets are turning the deals.
Here is the breakdown in the first two quarters of 2026 for each state.
A few items in conclusion
So, it will be interesting and certainly foretelling as to whether A.I. is the real thing, as it seems. We have had almost two years of data centers and A.I. owning the South’s economy. Data centers led all industries in SB&D 100 deals in 2025 for the first time ever. Looks like they will do it again this year.
Texas may be the canary in the coal mine of this economy. Surely this data center/A.I. run cannot be sustained. At some point, it will slow, as does every new thing, such as the internet (1996-2000), the EV run (2021-2024), and the housing crisis (2007-2009).
Goodbye print!
How all of these 44 years in print started. . .
I played baseball for the University of Tampa from 1974 to 1977. I then played in some low pro and semi-pro leagues down there, including the famous Tampa Smokers and Tampa Nuggets, all sponsored richly by Tampa-based Hav-a-Tampa cigar company.
But, I got homesick after playing baseball and going to school in Florida for 10 years. It was time to go back to Birmingham.
With my packed U-Haul rig behind my International Scout, I moved back home in 1983. Before making the 10-hour trek to Birmingham, I stopped at a Waffle House in Sarasota to eat breakfast.
There on a cigarette machine as I was buying some Parliament lung darts, I saw the South Florida Business Journal. I told myself right then, “Well dang, I can do that.” I was an English and Journalism major at Tampa U and interned at the Tampa Tribune for a couple of years since it was right across the street from the school, and then worked for them for a short period of time.
I founded the Birmingham Business Journal not long after arriving home in 1983. Sold it and started Southern Business & Development in 1993. So, that is how all of this started. . .on top of a cigarette machine.
Conclusion
As you now know, this is Southern Business & Development’s last regularly scheduled edition. We have been working on “Turning the Page” since we purchased the domain SouthernBusiness.com in 2024.
We do love print. But changing deadlines from quarterly and monthly to daily, even hourly, was too enticing to not carry out full-time. Plus, no one under 40 seems to read print anymore.
You are going to love the new SouthernBusiness.com. We hope to have it launched not too much longer after you finish reading this last issue.
Thank you for your support for all these years. We really do appreciate our sponsors and our readers. If it wasn’t for you, these 44 years would not have existed. Thank you!
